Wednesday, July 04, 2007
Clinton-Obama in '08?
Warning, the following will be boring for most, and is largely uneducated political opinion and/or speculation on my part. If my thoughts on these things interest you, something probably went horribly wrong during your childhood.
Barack Obama is now the number one money man in the race to the party primaries. He has earned $32.5 million in the last quarter, over $50 million total to date, and seems to be building some serious momentum. Most Democrats seem to think Hillary Clinton is the obvious pick, but Obama's strong financial showing says otherwise. Personally, I am still putting money on Clinton winning the Democratic primaries and looking to Obama as her Vice Presidential running mate. My buddy JR, aka Political Man, and I were talking about this scenario over lunch this weekend. He sees such a ticket as a mistake, since neither of the two has broad enough appeal to win over Republicans who are unhappy with the GOP. He's probably right, but I'm not sure that it will matter, if (and this is a big if), a Clinton-Obama ticket can energize enough female and minority voters who would not ordinarily vote to hit the polling stations.
Clinton will have a very strong position with women, particularly if Rudy Giuliani takes the Republican nomination (as is looking more likely). On one side you have Clinton, a woman with an adulterous husband who can position herself as the forgiving, loving wife. She gained sympathy and even admiration in how she handled herself during the Monica Lewinsky debacle. That's a powerful thing in a country where 60% of marriages end in divorce, with a significant number of those ending because of infidelity. In a strange twist of subjective morality, the same adulterous husband is also the most popular man in Democratic Party politics today. A telling statement on America's collective morality, no doubt. So, in a very real way, her association with the country's most famous adulterer, and the Dem's most beloved son, gives her a double shot of poll strength. She appeals to women, as a woman with a viable shot at the White House how could she not? But she also appeals to the Democratic base, since her husband represents something of a hero to that particular segment of society. Powerful stuff.
Speaking of adulterers, Rudy Giuliani knows a thing or two about sticking his hand into the mistress cookie jar. Rudy has had two failed marriages, the last involving a bitter split caused by his repeated humping of a woman who was most definitely not his beloved wife. From what I have read, the ex and most of his children are not very fond of dear, old dad these days. I am still curious to see how a man running for the nomination of a party which falsely accused, and simultaneously disgraced, a decent man like John McCain, will fair when the gloves come off in a primary run. Assuming Rudy survives, and he probably will, given the weak name recognition plaguing other Republican candidates, and the fact that he is the man credited with cleaning up New York. Of course, we all remember his speeches following the September 11th attacks in 2001, so he has some political capital there. But really, we've seen what a horrible job a GOP governor can do once he's in the White House. How could we possibly expect a man who has only reached the level of a city mayor to step up and lead an entire nation? Better yet, how do you trust someone who lies to his (ex-)wives and children? A man who lies to his loved ones is going to lie to people in whom he has made no emotional investment whatsoever. Why would he not?
In my opinion, Clinton has a decent chance of beating Giuliani, should the two meet in a race to the White House. I am not at all impressed by her performance in the Senate, or her behavior as a person, but I do have to admit that I would probably vote for a Clinton-Obama ticket. In my mind, giving a man like Barack Obama the chance to back up his talk with possible action is worth the risk of putting a relatively inexperienced VP in office. If nothing else, I would enjoy watching America's shrinking, white, Republican, male, controlling minority cringe and rage against a Clinton-Obama victory. Those same white, Republican males have been running things for eight years, and anyone can see what a travesty the American political system has become during that time. Why not take a chance on a woman and a black man? They would have to discard the Constitution, invade China AND Iran simultaneously, while speaking backwards at every press conference, in order to put the country in a worse position than it is today.
p.s. I was pulled over this morning for expired tags! Yes, I somehow managed to forget my renewal, though I am fairly certain that I sent in the paperwork a while ago. Can't find it anywhere here, but that's not too surprising, given my "stack it and stuff it" filing strategy. Regardless, the cop was cool, as he gave me a heads up and let me go on my way. FYI, the tax collector only accepts cash or checks free of charge. I know this because my first trip over on the bike turned into another trip home, so that I could retrieve my checkbook. Everything worked out in the end, as I did not pay any penalties (renewed within 10 days of my birthday) and got some seat time on the bike. We're at nearly 2,000 miles together. For the first time in a long time, I think I'm in love! :)
Labels: politics
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You're correct that campaign spending may not be the determining factor in this particular primary election, however, statistics show that the only thing greater than the advantage of heavy campaign spending is the advantage of being an incumbent. In short, it should be interesting to see how the dem. primaries pan out.
All politics aside... I can't believe their is a woman out there that Hillary appeals too. How she handled herself with her husbands sexual escapades in my opinion is embarrising to the female population. She showed either how weak she was that she thought she needed him to boost her career or that it was okay to stay in a loveless marriage to boost her career... either way she has no appeal to me.
Now, on to my political opinion... forget that it's her who is running and that I am a female... I just don't think a woman can be commader and cheif of our armed forces. If we got hit with a nuclear weapons, in my opinion I don't think a woman could make the harsh decision to retaliate.
As far as Obama... I just don't like him and don't want to bore you with why. Having said that, I don't like any of the republicans that are running either so I am really torn on how I'll vote.
We'll see how things go. I'm betting Hillary wins the primary, and Obama comes on board as a VP candidate. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)
Laura - lots of women forgive their husbands infidelities. Hell, American Presidents have a history of sleeping around that dates all the way back to Washington. There are very, very few honorable men and women in this world, so chasing a bit of strange is more of a norm than an exception to the rule, particularly where egotistical, wealthy people are concerned. It's not right, it's not good, but it is the way that things have always been.
And I think the decision to push "the button" would a) be made only after heavy deliberation, no matter who was in charge, and b) is not nearly as clean and dry as it would seem. After all, we are much more likely to see a nuclear attack by a terrorist organization using a gray market bomb, than we are from any industrialized and nuclear capable country. The US nuclear arsenal is powerful enough to easily exterminate all human life from the face of the Earth. There aren't many organized nations that would dare tempt retaliation of that magnitude, regardless of who is in charge. And frankly, George W Bush has proven himself to be such a pathetic human being, Hillary can't be any less prepared or capable.
Not sure why you would dislike Obama, but I tend to agree with his message. I think he is the future of the Democratic Party, in a lot of ways. Let me ask you this, would you really want someone like Rudy Giuliani with his finger on the trigger? How is he any better than Hillary? I say he's worse, and that's saying something!
I’m sure there are plenty of women who pretend to forgive their husbands cheating because they feel it’s best for the kids to stay, fear they can’t support themselves or their children on their own or fear they have no other option, but I find it hard to believe that there is a women out there who can truly forgive out of love. I know in the back of their head every day they are thinking, “That bastard screwed someone else”. I can guarantee that if Scott cheated I would be out the door, I deserve better than that, there is no excuse for it, and I could never ever forgive him for it and go about our marriage. I grew up in a house of cheaters, I saw fist hand what it does to a marriage, to the children and anyone who stays is weak in my opinion. So no, Hillary doesn’t appeal to me because of how she handled herself when her husband made a joke of their marriage.
I absolutely agree with you, I would hate to have Giuliani in that seat, like I said... I don't like anyone who is running on either side. I used nuclear weapons to overstate my case. I know I'm a female and most females will disagree with me... but the fact is when it comes to fighting a war I don't think a female should be in charge. Agree or disagree with me, but I believe women and men were built differently and I think a man can handle the battlefield better than a women. This is why I believe women don't belong in the Army.... but that is an entire different topic.
Going into Iraq right or wrong doesn't matter, we are at war and we need to be harsher about it. We're never going to win if we keep trying to be the nice guy. Did you know that when a terrorist killed one of our men and the terrorist got hurt in the battle that they then called in your brother to save said terrorist... how are we going to win a war that way??? My point is EVEN with a man in office, politics rule the war and my fear is that with a woman in that position things will get worse.
I hope I'm wrong because I do think Hillary is going to win. It would be great is she could prove me wrong and do a great job leading the troops and conduct the war how it should be... I guess we'll have to wait and see.
I can't claim to understand how people move past infidelity in a marriage, but some people appear to. There has to be some underlying resentment, but for some, maybe their love or their need to have someone there is enough to overcome that bitterness.
As for women in the military, I think the biggest potential problem is with the physicality of soldiering, but women have a long, if sporadic, history of being engaged in warrior activities. I think that women are just as capable of being unemotional and ruthless as men. Hell, I know some women that think more like a man than some men that I know! lol
And forgetting that politics and business come before honor and honesty in governance is what has gotten us into the mess in Iraq. Political power and business interests will ALWAYS come before what is right or just. That is why we must always question everything the government does, particularly where the military is concerned.
I concur.